Cross Lanes, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS61 KRLX 130702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
302 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms likely as disturbances cross today, then
becoming more diurnal and confined to the mountains into the
weekend. Turning hotter this weekend as high pressure builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely today, as a
mid/upper-level short wave trough drives a surface cold front
toward the area. Coverage will maximized during peak heating
this afternoon, before waning around sunset on loss of heating,
and the exodus of the short wave trough.

With modest CAPE for mid/late summer, in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range, a high freezing level and weak to modest deep layer bulk
shear keep the severe weather threat low, and SPC continues to
carry a general thunderstorm outlook. Still, believe hail and
strong to isolated damaging downbursts are possible with
stronger, taller storms, given thick CAPE through the hail
growth layer, and rich moisture content. SPC has introduced a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms just off to the
northeast of the forecast area.

With PW values up around 2 inches fueled by surface dew points
in the low to mid 70s F across lower elevations, and h85 dew
points up around 15 C, the potential for locally heavy rainfall
exists, especially with increased precipitation coverage in the
light flow regime. WPC continues to carry a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall across the area, not to mention much of the
eastern U.S. and back across the deep south, with an embedded
slight risk area that includes far southern portions of the
forecast area. There, some CAMs suggest a round of heavy
rainfall early this morning, which would enhance the potential
for excessive rainfall with additional showers and thunderstorms
during the midday and afternoon hours today.

Numerous to potentially widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage today will suppress high temperatures, compared with
recent days, but could set the stage for widespread fog and
stratus formation late tonight amid warm, muggy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A surface cold front driven by a mid/upper-level short wave
trough moving through in th near term period, seeps southward
through the area Thursday morning. However, additional weak
short wave troughs cross in the mid/upper-level west to
northwest flow. As a result, showers and thunderstorms become
less likely but remain possible, and become more diurnally-
driven and increasingly confined to the mountains Thursday
through Friday.

Weak to modest shear and slightly less CAPE compared with today
will keep the severe weather threat low to nil, and the
excessive rainfall shifts south of the area Thursday, as lower
PW values seep in from the north in the wake of the cold front.

Clouds, the front, and some showers and thunderstorm coverage,
should keep temperatures shy of 90 for much of the lowlands
Thursday, but mid/late summer sunshine should counter the front
on Friday, allowing much of the lowlands to top out at 90 or
better once again. The cold front will provide the slightest in
relief from the muggy nights Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Weaker ripples in the mid/upper-level west to northwest flow
keep diurnally-driven thunderstorms in and near the mountains
Saturday. Brief mid/upper-level ridging building over the area
is likely to bring about a lull in diurnal convection on Sunday,
before long wave troughing over eastern Canada results in some
height suppression over the area to start the new work week.

Duirnally-driven thunderstorms in the mountains on Monday will
become possible in the lowlands, and maybe even less diurnal,
with the approach of a surface cold front heading into the
middle of next week.

Central guidance temperatures reflect the rebuilding heat,
peaking with the highest heights on Sunday, when afternoon
lowland heat indices could reach into the lower 100s. High
temperatures then trend lower during the early portion of the
new work week, in tandem with the lowering heights and,
eventually, a surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

Upper-level disturbances and an approaching cold front are
likely to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
this period, with multiple opportunities for IFR conditions in
heavier showers and storms. IFR thunderstorms rolling through
EKN right at the start of the period will make early morning IFR
fog more likely there this morning.

In between the showers and storms, MVFR ceilings will become
more common this morning. Showers and storms will be most
numerous during the midday and afternoon hours today, and then
will become less numerous tonight. In the wake of the showers
and storms, areas of fog and stratus may start forming toward
the end of the TAF period, 06Z Thursday.

Surface flow will be light and variable to south to southwest,
except erratic and gusty in and near thunderstorms, but less
than 30 kts. Flow aloft will be light west to northwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Forecast adjustments and amendments may be
needed for rain and thunderstorms. In addition, fog may develop
in more places overnight than KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/13/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in fog and/or stratus overnight
tonight and early Thursday morning, and in afternoon
thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM